Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.517716 0.601036 0.690748 0.794204 0.909882 1.034907 1.179908
2025-03-30 0.374783 0.478684 0.599024 0.747512 0.924539 1.127529 1.376510
2025-04-06 0.281957 0.395765 0.537247 0.723288 0.958451 1.242645 1.608553
2025-04-13 0.209246 0.324238 0.477976 0.693365 0.981504 1.347429 1.840155
2025-04-20 0.163996 0.280338 0.447288 0.695612 1.045572 1.510238 2.161058
2025-04-27 0.125423 0.237962 0.411786 0.686434 1.093831 1.658420 2.479154
2025-05-04 0.098570 0.207700 0.388918 0.692262 1.164217 1.844327 2.866520
2025-05-11 0.076588 0.180129 0.365301 0.693575 1.228534 2.028638 3.269344
2025-05-18 0.054838 0.146500 0.324752 0.661274 1.237505 2.133573 3.568596
2025-05-25 0.037725 0.116162 0.283168 0.619912 1.226379 2.206896 3.827714
2025-06-01 0.027851 0.098229 0.261215 0.609855 1.266115 2.363198 4.225994
2025-06-08 0.020210 0.082456 0.239773 0.596931 1.299116 2.511554 4.623612
2025-06-15 0.015839 0.074189 0.233965 0.616462 1.397521 2.784072 5.252412
2025-06-22 0.010578 0.059707 0.209025 0.591208 1.408956 2.910279 5.653311
2025-06-29 0.007322 0.049832 0.192656 0.581634 1.449916 3.092488 6.163012
2025-07-06 0.004831 0.040672 0.174904 0.565056 1.474542 3.247759 6.638827
2025-07-13 0.003511 0.035736 0.168117 0.574102 1.554194 3.511486 7.322257
2025-07-20 0.002395 0.030405 0.157901 0.572168 1.609894 3.734757 7.949019
2025-07-27 0.001708 0.026834 0.152459 0.582186 1.693915 4.019893 8.706492
2025-08-03 0.001172 0.023359 0.145837 0.587504 1.767885 4.291097 9.455122
2025-08-10 0.000657 0.018419 0.130364 0.562637 1.766617 4.410476 9.927394
2025-08-17 0.000324 0.013919 0.113659 0.529030 1.738609 4.471759 10.292454
2025-08-24 0.000182 0.011526 0.105759 0.522366 1.778065 4.677978 10.949733